A machine learning model trained on 200,000+ Statcast game logs, anchored to Pinnacle's sharpest lines. Every pick is +EV or it doesn't get posted.
GET PICKS — $15/MO →We pull Pinnacle's closing lines — the sharpest market in the world — and use them as our probability anchor.
Our model runs barrel rate, bat speed, fly ball %, park factor, and pitcher HR/9 through a logistic regression trained on 4 years of real game data.
We compare retail odds at DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM to our model. Only plays with positive expected value get posted.
Daily HR picks with player, book, odds, and unit size. Posted each afternoon before first pitch.
MAIN CHANNELFull model output — EV%, simulation probability, Kelly sizing, Pinnacle line. For subscribers who want to dig into the numbers.
ANALYTICSMorning recap of yesterday's picks. Outcome tracking and running ROI updated daily.
RESULTS